As polling stations open across the United States, the race for the White House is anyone’s to win based on the final batch of national surveys.
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain locked in an extraordinarily narrow fight for the presidency after each candidate spent the final hours of their campaigns trying to win over voters in key swing states. Now that Election Day is here, Americans from coast to coast will make their voices heard at the ballot box.
Informing many voters choices are likely to be their views of who is best to handle the economy, immigration, abortion and threats to democracy – key issues that have been at the top of Americans’ minds in poll after poll.
Here’s what to know about the latest national polls as Americans head out to cast their votes:
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Harris has narrow lead over Trump in Ipsos poll
Vice President Harris is leading former President Trump by 2 percentage points in the latest Ipsos Core Political poll released Monday.
The poll of 1,242 adults showed Harris leading Trump 50%-48% as the finish line for the election approaches. Conducted Friday through Sunday, the poll had a margin of error of three percentage points.
On the issues, 42% of those polled prefer former President Donald Trump’s approach to the economy and foreign conflict, while 45% say he’s best to handle the issue of immigration. Meanwhile, 42% of voters who were surveyed prefer Harris’ approach to healthcare, while 39% say she’d be best to handle political extremism or threats to democracy.
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While most Americans, 57%, say they disapprove of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, just 48% say the same of Vice President Harris. And, when it comes to favorability, slightly more Americans (45%) say they have a generally favorable view of Harris than Trump (42%.) Harris’ net favorability (-5%) is also higher than Trump’s net favorability (-12%) among all Americans.
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Trump has narrow lead over Harris in final TIPP poll
The race is even tighter in the final TIPP Tracking Poll released Tuesday, which showed Trump with just a .3-point lead on Harris.
The poll of 1,863 likely voters found Trump to be leading Harris 48.6% to 48.3%. Conducted online from Saturday to Monday, the survey has a margin of error of 2.3 points.
“Late-deciding voters often lean toward the challenger over the incumbent, potentially giving Trump an edge on the final day, a common tendency for undecided voters who harbor doubts about the sitting administration,” the poll noted.
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Harris leads Trump in final Marist/PBS/NPR national poll
Harris has a four-point lead over Trump in the final national poll released by Marist on Monday.
The poll of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBS, saw 51% of respondents supporting Harris while 47% supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The result is outside the poll’s ±3.5 percentage point margin of error.
The poll found that Harris significantly reduced Trump’s lead with men nationally. Trump is still ahead with men in the poll 51%-47%, but the previous iteration of the poll had Trump ahead by 16 points. Harris leads among women in the poll 55%-45%, though her previous lead was 18 points.
“Harris is well-positioned to carry the popular vote for president but needs to traverse a narrow pathway to achieve 270 in the Electoral College,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the poll’s release. “Former President Trump’s candidacy is being held back by his high negatives among likely voters.”
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Harris, Trump deadlocked in Forbes/HarrisX poll
Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll released late Monday.
Harris has a razor-thin 49%-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters polled, with 3% preferring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to choose only between Harris and Trump, the vice president’s lead grew slightly to 49%-47%, with 4% undecided.
The poll was taken online between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.
“Price increases/inflation” was among the most important issues for respondents, with 36% of those surveyed saying it was top of mind. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents, putting them at the top of their list, respectively. Abortion came in as the fourth-most important, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their top issues.
“The race will come down to turnout tomorrow, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, an analytics company with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has historically outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020 due to his ability to get low propensity voters to show up and win the voters on the fence who make up their mind at the last minute.”
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
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