VP Debate Winner: Snap Polls and Betting Markets Favor Vance Over Walz

In a closely watched VP Debate Winner, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Senator J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) faced off. Many described it as a “Midwestern nice” debate, focusing on policy rather than personal attacks. While the debate was polite, snap polls and betting markets indicate that Vance may have narrowly edged out Walz.

Key Results from Snap Polls:

CBS News Poll: Shortly after the VP Debate Winner, CBS released a snap poll. It showed 42% of viewers believed Vance won. Meanwhile, 41% thought Walz came out on top. Additionally, 17% viewed the debate as a tie.
Favorability Boost: Both candidates saw their favorability ratings rise after the debate. Vance’s favorability increased from 40% to 49%, while Walz’s ratings jumped from 52% to 60%.
CNN Poll: In CNN’s post-debate instant poll, Vance narrowly beat Walz. 51% of viewers favored his performance. This is compared to 49% for Walz.
More Favorability Gains: CNN also reported an increase in favorability for both candidates. Walz’s favorability rose from 46% to 59%, while Vance’s favorability jumped from 30% to 41%.
Politico/Focaldata Poll: A snap poll of likely voters revealed a 50-50 split on the debate’s winner. Independent voters favored Walz by a 57-42 margin.

Betting Markets Weigh In: Vance Declared the Winner

On the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, bookmakers declared Vance the winner. He has a 73% chance of being judged victorious in post-debate opinion polls. In contrast, Walz’s chances dropped to 27%. This marked a complete reversal from pre-debate expectations, when bettors favored Walz with a 70% chance of winning.

Tangent: Trump and Harris Betting Odds

Election betting markets showed a slight boost for former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election. Favorable polling in Georgia and North Carolina contributed to the shift. However, Vice President Kamala Harris still holds a slight edge in the betting markets, with bookmakers giving her a 50.3% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 48.9%.